Our Worst Fears for the 2016 Election Materialized: The Most Unqualified Candidate in 100 yrs is Elected President

Twelve years ago, I worked for the Kerry campaign in Cleveland, Ohio, and on the day after the election we were stunned, defeated, and despondent. But, this feels worse, much worse. The candidate, now president-elect, is worse than GWB, and the way he got to the finish line is irredeemably deplorable. 

I could understand why Americans chose GWB to remain as the commander-in-chief in 2004 at the height of two wars, but it hurts when half the country voted for Donald Trump who built his campaign on racism, xenophobia, hate, attacking people and the constitution, insults with no limits, threats, childish temper tantrums, and by bringing out the worst among us. I did not believe we could be so bad as a nation to elect and find someone like Trump acceptable. Even if you believe you have termites eating your house, you don't fight them by torch.  

I am for democracy, and support the institutions of this great country. Institutions that DJT does not respect. We accept the verdict of the voters, even if we disagree with it. The rules may be outdated--the EC, winner take all system, etc--but they apply to all competitors. Imagine what Trump and his cohorts would say had he, like JRC, won the popular vote but lost in the EC.... He refused to say whether he would accept the outcome of this election if he lost.... This child in man's clothes, who throws a fit, "it's not fair", when he thinks he might lose--a blatant disregard for our institutions and acceptable norms of civility, and citizenship.

What Now?

 It'll take a while for the shock to wear off, though I don't think I'll find the outcome any less palatable for years to come. We'll pour over data to try to understand what exactly happened and plot ahead. Much will depend on how Trump governs. One of the terrifying things about him is that his awful character flaws that make him unfit for the office may result in unpredictable consequences. With GWB we knew what to expect. Did it make it more acceptable? Not really, but he wasn't crazy unpredictable.

It took an non-traditional Republican to win the presidency for the Republicans. But they took a big gamble with Trump. He demolished traditional Republican policy values: free trade and no protectionism; no talk of redistribution of resources; no regulation of Wall Street; pro-NATO and strong presence all over the globe; no tariffs; etc.  There will be clashes within the GOP. Trump's feud with Speaker Ryan may escalate. Will Trump choose the tea party or the Republican party establishment?

Is Trump capable of changing his style? No, not his hair, but the way he's run his business and his TV show. You can't run the country like that, or like a country club or a casino. Nor can you fail to uphold the obligations the country has undertaken, from foreign treaties, to the national debt, to the social safety net.

Most Americans vote on a loose, simple narrative and feelings. They don't know or care to understand the workings of our complicated political system that's been in place for hundreds of years. However, while the majority of Americans wanted change--and Trump represented change--they'll expect change. They'll be aware that the Republicans will control the Executive and both chambers of Congress, so Trump and the GOP will have no good excuse for not delivering what the people want. Now, many of Trump's promises aren't realistic, from building the wall to bringing back factories and improving the lives of the middle class by trickle-down economics and weakening consumer protection.

I personally know people who did not vote for HR Clinton because she was very unappealing to them, and  while they found Trump abhorrent, they didn't reason out: not HRC = yes DJT. This group included 10% of 18-35 year-olds who voted for third parties or millions of them who didn't vote at all. Trump got the majority of women! Trump got more Hispanic/Latino votes than Romney. Likewise, millions of people who benefited from the social safety net, including Obamacare, didn't bother to vote. Elections have consequences and these groups will feel this. First thing on the agenda: repealing Obamacare, so 20 million Americans will soon find out how free they'll be from the government obliging them to have health insurance by not having no insurance.

One thing for sure, Trump will shake the foundations of this country. 

It's been an exhausting campaign and a draining couple of days... I'm afraid this is not going to get any easier for a long time. To all my liberal friends, this is not the end. The country is moving in a progressive direction; look what policies, often via referendum, states are adopting. Many important steps are laid in stone by now, and even though we got an anti-science president and a creationist VP, progress will prevail; it'll just take a detour in the next 4 years. It's up to us to reverse this setback as soon as possible, but we have to bring a sizeable chunk of those misguided people who voted for Trump to our side. Most of them are not part of the fascist core that propelled Trump's campaign, so we have to become even more vocal and active. It's probably the best therapy for us now.

Are Electric Vehicles ready for prime time?

EV vs ICE Essentials
With the success of Tesla and the current trend to have every major car manufacturer offer an electric vehicle it is becoming more important than ever to explain in simple language the essentials of what is the major fuel consumption difference between an internal combustion engine (ICE) and an electrically driven vehicle (EV). There is some truth in the popular belief that EV is overall more environmentally friendly than ICE but what is crucial is to understand clearly that there are some factors that can diminish and even eliminate the perceived advantage of an EV, namely how the electricity was generated and its retail cost. On the other hand the advantage of an EV can be enhanced through producing cleaner electricity ; from natural gas, solar, wind or even nuclear; and through higher prices for gasoline at the pump due to higher taxes.

The following are some facts that are not clearly understood by many consumers:

A zero emissions electric powered engine does not exist, yet. It is true that the driver of a Tesla (TSLA), Nissan Leaf (NSANY), Chevrolet Volt (GM) or any of the other EV vehicles does not emit directly any CO2 while operating the EV vehicle. But the electricity does not get generated from thin air. If the electricity is being produced by a coal fired power plant or any other fossil fuel then the electric power used to charge the batteries of EV vehicles would not result in any significant decrease of CO2 emissions. Many studies have actually shown that in many cases CO2 emissions would actually increase.

In the US the production of an average KWH of electricity generates about 1.2 pounds of CO2 (as per data from US Energy Information Administration). In some localities the emissions are greater and in others smaller than that since different regions produce electricity from different fuel sources. Furthermore an average KWH stored in a battery drives an EV about 3 miles. EX. VOLT has a battery whose capacity is 18.4 KWH and a range of 53 miles while the 85 KWH in a Tesla has a range of 265 miles. So how does this compare to an internal combustion engine ? Every gallon of gasoline produces about 20 pounds of CO2 when fully combusted although the gallon weighs less than 7 pounds. That is explained by the weight of the oxygen that is needed for the combustion.(USEIA calculates that a gallon of gasoline free from ethanol produces 19.64 pounds of CO2).

Based on the above it is clear that an EV vehicle will travel 1 mile and emit 0.4 pounds of CO2 (1.2pounds/3 miles) while an ICE vehicle that averages 20 mpg emits about 1 pound per mile (20 ponds/20 miles). If a typical vehicle is to be operated for 10,000 miles a year then an EV vehicle would produce 6000 less pounds pf CO2 compared to a 20mpg ICE car. The market value of this 2.7 metric tons of CO2 is under $100 per year. Note though, that as the mpg increases in an ICE vehicle then it approaches the emission cleanliness of an EV. Actually an ICE powered vehicle that has a fuel efficiency of 50 mpg will emit the same amount of CO2 per mile as the average EV vehicle using a typical US produced KWH of electricity.

Financial comparisons

Unfortunately some individuals are not that much interested in the environmental advantages of EV over Ice but are more financially pragmatic, they would be interested in an EV purchase provided that the initial price premium can be reasonably expected to result in sufficient fuel saving. Again the facts show, unfortunately, that the EV premiums are not justified on a cash flow basis. 

Let us look at the scientific figures:

Retail price of KWH differs substantially from one region of the country to another. In some cases a KWH retails for up to $0.26 cents (NYC and Westchester including taxes and surcharges) while in other regions it is under $0.1 (Oklahoma 0.0706; Texas 0.076; Virginia 0.081).Clearly, charging an EV in the state of NY is much more expensive than the state of Oklahoma. This implies that EV’s will probably need a much longer period of time to recapture the initial premium charged by the manufacturers. Based on the above, it is clear that fuel cost for an EV could be as high as 9 cents per mile and possibly as low as 3.5-4 cents a mile in some cases. 

How does this compare to an ICE powered automobile? Assume an average price of $2.4 for a gallon of unleaded regular and the CAFÉ standard of 35.5 mpg (Corporate Average Fuel Economy as set by the EPA) then the average cost of gasoline per mile would be under 7 cents which is less expensive than the cost of electricity to charge an EV in areas like NY. But since not many cars get the 35.5 mpg efficiency let us assume that the average automobile achieves an efficiency of 20 mpg. In this case the fuel cost per mile would be 12 cents. Such a cost will be only 3 cent per mile more expensive than the fuel cost for an EV in an area similar to that of NYC but it could be 8 cents more expensive than fueling an EV in such areas as Texas. 

So are the potential fuel savings of an EV vehicle large enough to rationalize the initial $10,000 premium for an EV charged by the manufacturer? (General Motors’ MSRP for the Chevrolet Cruze is about $10,000 less than that for a Chevrolet Volt). Unfortunately, the above simple calculations make it clear that no rational person would be willing to pay a premium of about $10,000 in order to actualize savings of about $300-800 per annum.

Conclusion

The EV fad is not about to make major inroads into the car market. Its vehicles are not zero emissions and their advantages over ICE are limited by science as well as tax policy.The average consumer will not pay a premium for a vehicle whose fuel results in almost the same volume of CO2 emissions as an ICE powered vehicle and whose fuel cost savings cannot justify the high premium being charged by the manufacturers.

This does not mean that there will not be a market for EV vehicles. It only suggests that a mass market for EVs is highly unlikely under the current conditions. Luxury brands such as Tesla, Mercedes Benz and BMW would have no problem catering to a small niche of conspicuous consumers that are driven by high prices, scarcity and perceived quality. A mass market of EV vehicles will not develop unless such automobiles consume fuel whose total direct and indirect emissions are less than ICE vehicles and whose projected annual savings in fuel cost justify the initial price premium. That can be accomplished either through higher gasoline prices or much lower initial price premium or a combination of both. This is why I do not think that the BOLT by the Chevrolet division of General Motors (GM) will be a big success in its current format.

False Equivalency and Laziness in our Politics

Bill Maher is spot on.

Several good points made here, like the amount of lies and the magnitude of those; not all are the same, and, yes, not all are evil.  Also, the lackadaisical attitude and citizenship failure of so many Americans who they hide behind cynicism so they don't have to invest time, energy, and precious brain cells into a process that has a direct effect on their lives! But they know about sports or the measurements of Kim Kardashian's ass.  Don't believe me? See how people talk about sports and the knowledge they exhibit.....

As for the latest FBI announcement that they found more emails... oyvey, I thought the FBI and the media (which are eating this latest "news") were in HR Clinton's corner.  Anyway, the bottom line is that this will not make any difference as most people already have decided that this scandal either enrages them or they don't care. It's beating a dead horse; it doesn't have legs anymore. I like the aggressive response by HRC to demand the FBI release all the details, and that this "revelation" is irresponsible at this stage. Those emails were not from her server but came from a separate investigation into a creep's (Anthony Weiner) sexting underage women.  I guess it was expected to move from the pussy-gate to weiner-gate.

Yes, It Does Reflect Who You Are, Donald! [just go away aready, you disgusting bully]

While the "deplorables" is a recent tag, and H.Clinton has gotten lots of criticism about this, it's appropriate. The only question is the size of this dirt bag. The GOP should have realized that Trump was riding a wave that had those deplorables as its core. The ones filled with hate, prejudice, and utter ignorance. And, he encouraged this. No party should have promoted anyone who gets on stage and denigrates possible future presidents of the US by calling them, "ugly," "little ..." . "lyin'.. etc, and brags about the size of his penis.

But, he is the product of the seeds and cultivation the GOP employed in the last 10 years. That unless Republicans are in charge everything else is suspect, treasonous, foreign, anti-American, anti-Xtian, illegitimate, and worthy of not only disrespect, but hate too. Everybody knows how the Congressional GOP and its leaders have behaved. Same with others down the line to local levels. Trump rode this wave the GOP created, so the GOP, Tea party, etc, all OWN him. As he said last week, "I reflect you"... 

This pussy-scandal shouldn't surprise anyone. If anyone didn't know of or cared about Don's personality before this latest revelation confirms that they've rightly have earned the label of deplorables!

A juvenile, braggart, vile, dangerous ignoramus, who wants to run the United States as a gambling hole, while encouraging and employing a basket of deplorables. He has lead them by example! What more do you want to reject this disgusting bully?

Divided Government, Partisanship and Glidlock, But Otherwise "We're Number One!"

As amazing as it may sound to those who follow politics, many people in our country don't really understand the role the US Supreme Court plays. They see the fight between president Obama and Congress about nominating a new justice as another political game. Many of my students when asked how does the high court affect their lives couldn't come up with specific cases that determined the conditions and direction of our country. A few mentioned the Roe v. Wade case and then a couple others remembered the decisions about "Obama care" and same-sex marriage.

It's the same view the general public has that things will work out, more or less regardless who's on the Supreme Court, and to similar extend in Congress. Oh, yeah, there's partisanship and some hot-button issues, but most of us have picked a team (like in sports), and we hope for the best while we expect to be disappointed by the way our political system works.

I hope this issue of getting the 9th justice on the supreme court is an educational opportunity in many ways. For starters, it highlights the principle of division of power, checks and balances. Or, how the US model separates the executive (president) from the legislature (Congress) in contrast to most western countries where the executive (usually a prime minister) control the majority of seats in the legislature (parliament). 

On this topic, I wish the media asked the presidential candidates the following question, "How do you expect to do all the things you say you will do when we have a divided government, and in all probability--judging from the last many years--Congress will not go along with your plans?"   

As for the supreme court, the president gets to nominate, and eventually gets someone he chose confirmed. The Senate cannot reject or delay forever. I can see why the Democrats might have opposed a G W Bush nomination in 2008 a few months before the election, but conservative presidents choose conservative judges, like liberals choose their kind. The times of "mainstream" or truly independent candidates for the supreme court are over. The two parties are far apart, primarily because the Republican party has left the mainstream.

Also, an appointment to the high court with its eventual effect on our society is part of a president's legacy. The stakes are high, especially in a politically, and I dare say culturally, divided country. That's why presidents now look to nominate someone in their late 40s or early 50s so they can stay on the court for 30 years!  Funny, thing, I asked my students if they could imagine themselves age 50 and they almost fell off their seats. They got the point though that the next ..supreme will be on the high court making decisions affecting their lives until they reach age 50!

Heck, that's a good enough reason to register and vote!

The Year of the Monkey Ushers Fun and Games. But Who's Going to be Laughing by Year's End?

This is shaping to be a nice new year, and once again we're called to make a decision about the direction of our country. There are vast differences between the two parties' candidates, and let's not forget that elections have consequences! The Supreme Court is always at play during a presidential election.

There have been great debates about the direction of the country already, but new ideas come primarily from the left as the right wants to bring back what it has been tried before, often with dire outcomes. Yes, "the system" has a momentum that can't be easily changed given present political realities, unless, as Bernie Sanders says, public opinion and voting changes to reflect the need for change--change that will restore most benefits to the middle class.

The presidential term lasts 8 years, and Obama has over 300 days left in office. God just gave us a gift by recalling Scalia from the US Supreme Court. How can you argue with God, right? Scripture, as per St. Paul, says the people should obey those in power, because, after all, there's a divine plan in place. Therefore, Obama should nominate a replacement asap, and the president should be the communicator-in chief in order to get the new SCOTUS justice confirmed by the Senate.

Despite the nice statements about the departed justice, Scalia was a divisive figure and a conservative champion who believed in a romantic but unrealistic view of the US constitution. The conservatives have been attacking the liberal justices as "activists" who find rights in the constitution and overturn the "will of the people" and legislatures. Of course, the 2000 SCOTUS decision to essentially give G.W. Bush the presidency was an act of judicial activism by the conservatives.  

Marco Rubio put it bluntly yesterday, that the US constitution is not "a living, breathing" document but must be interpreted "as the founders intended."  This is a conservative but misguided view. The constitution was meant for a living and breathing country, not a dead one of the 18th century! A time when owning arms meant a musket and a knife!  Indeed, we tweaked it 27 times already. And, many necessary changes that promoted rights, freedom, and the quality of life came via the judiciary branch, especially when states--often representing local majorities--remained stuck in the 18th century.

There are many cases of importance the high court has to decide before it goes into recess in June, cases such for voting rights, Obamacare, union organizing, immigration, etc.  So, let the gladiatorial games begin...  Happy Chinese new year by the way.